Macron’s Nuclear Gamble: Building a European Deterrent Faster Than French Politics Can Tear Down
By Piri ·
French President Emmanuel Macron has expanded France’s nuclear arsenal, ended transparency on its size, and launched an “advanced deterrence” framework offering European partners strategic talks, joint exercises, and possible temporary forward basing of French nuclear aircraft. Eight NATO states, including Germany, have joined the initiative, which aims to serve as insurance if U.S. extended deterrence weakens. The plan faces major hurdles: differences from NATO nuclear sharing, a limited French arsenal under 300 warheads, and opposition from France’s far-right ahead of the 2027 election.
Chapters
- Macron's Nuclear Policy Shift
- Advanced Deterrence as NATO Insurance
- The Domestic Gamble
- The Franco-German Coupling
- Nuclear Risks and Rewards
Adapted from Amélie Jaques-Apke and Lily Wojtowicz.